Nature was quiet in the first half of 2026 — four independent estimates put insured catastrophe losses between USD 42bn and USD 47bn, the lowest first half since 2019–20. But the count of billion-dollar insured events ran above average, and modelled average annual loss is still rising. Quiet is a severity story, not a frequency story.
The regulators were not quiet. The PRA’s PS18/26 applies from reference dates on or after 31 December 2026: MALIR moves to XBRL, NACE 2.1 arrives, third-country branches report projected FSCS liabilities, and a permission requirement for own-funds classification goes. The revised Solvency II framework lands on 30 January 2027.
The NAIC’s credit-rating feeds resumed on 10 August and FE/PLR designations were republished on 17 August — two days after the Q2 filing deadline. In the same week, state regulators adopted new CLO capital factors effective for year-end 2026. A quiet loss year is when the reporting and capital machinery gets rebuilt.
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