Abgalis · A response · May 2026

Planetary Solvency, addressed.

On the IFoA + Anglia Ruskin paper, Planetary Solvency: Tipping into the wild unknown — Aled Jones, Georgina Bedenham, Mary Goldman, Andre Ranchin, Nick Spencer, Ian Trim, April 2026.

The IFoA paper makes a single, hard claim: climate-only modelling is no longer credible. Nature is not a footnote. It is the actuarial blind spot. The paper asks the profession ten questions. We have spent the last two years building the answers.

This page maps every recommendation against ICRIP — our Integrated Climate Risk Intelligence Platform — as it stands today. An integrated multi-agent platform. PRA SS5/25 §3 rails. Live for beta clients.

The honest scorecard

Seven of the ten recommendations are addressed in full today. Two are partially addressed and on this quarter's build list. One — the asset-owner fiduciary side of Recommendation 10 — is on the H2 2026 roadmap. We do not claim parity where we have not earned it.

RecWhat the IFoA paper asks forWhere it lives in ICRIP todayStatus
1Mindset shift to Planetary Solvency managers — nature as critical infrastructureRisk + emerging-risk surveillance and Board reporting agentsIn full
2Global coordination — coalitions of the willing; cross-border data sharingCross-firm coordination layer (designed for federation; consortium onboarding Beta+1)In full
3Build policymaker capacity on systemic risk; train the professionRegulatory-intelligence + ORSA stack; C-suite specialist skillsIn full
4Prevent, repair, monitor — One Health, surveillance, land-use controlsEarth-observation backend + tipping-system monitor + daily/weekly Board surveillanceIn part
5Cross-economy collaboration — environment + finance + health + foodCross-economy supply-chain and regulatory integration agentsIn full
6Quantify biodiversity risk using ENCORE, IBAT, TNFDFull TNFD LEAP framework end-to-end, grounded in independent open-data sourcesIn full
7Adopt qualitative narratives alongside quantitative scenariosBoard-facing war-gaming + Judgment Ledger + cross-firm collective-scenarios layerIn part
8Recognise systemic risk — biodiversity collapse is WEF's #2 global riskCascading risk engine — patent application PCT/EP2026/055546 (filed; not yet granted)In full
9Understand the limits of financial models — Dasgupta, ECB, ecosystem servicesAI governance plane + 1LoD/2LoD/3LoD challenge agents + Merkle-rooted judgement provenanceIn full
10Be aware of tipping points — Amazon, coral, pollinationTipping-system surveillance covering 6 of 7 IFoA-named Earth-system tipping elements; seventh on H2 2026 roadmapIn full*

* Addressed for the insurer / underwriting side. Asset-owner / fiduciary integration for IIGCC- and TPT-style buyers is on the H2 2026 roadmap.

What is already live

Three things distinguish ICRIP from a climate vendor that has read the brief:

01

TNFD LEAP, with the live data feeds

Full TNFD LEAP framework integration — Locate, Evaluate, Assess, Prepare — grounded in independent open-data sources for sector-ecosystem dependencies, species observations, protected areas, and ocean / forest indicators. Source citations surfaced inline at every output. Most platforms ship the acronym. We ship the framework.

02

Cascading risk engine, patent application filed

Patent applications PCT/EP2026/055546 + GB2604254.9 filed (not yet granted). Propagates physical, transition and litigation shock vectors across the platform and into the Solvency II Pillar 1 balance sheet.

03

Live UK insurer regulatory disclosure ingestion

Our regulatory disclosure ingestion pipeline has been operational since Q1 2026 against the UK insurance market, building the peer-benchmarking dataset the IFoA paper says the profession needs. Anonymised aggregate findings publishable; named-entity scoring will follow our right-of-reply protocol.

Tipping points — the methodological shift

The paper's deepest critique is that backward-looking, mean-reverting shocks — the entire current actuarial canon — are wrong for tipping-point risk. The loss is permanent. The dividend stops. There is no ergodic recovery.

Our tipping-system surveillance covers six of the seven Earth-system tipping elements highlighted in the IFoA paper, drawing on the published IPCC AR6 and Lenton et al. (2023) thresholds. The seventh is on our H2 2026 roadmap.

Tipping events are not smooth stresses — our methodology treats them as discontinuous balance-sheet events under Solvency II Art. 77, distinct from one-period multiplicative stress overlays. This avoids the standard pitfall of stressing only the next reporting period while leaving the long-tail liability run-off unaffected. Detailed methodology in our Annual ORSA disclosure pack — extract available on request under NDA.

"Failure to take account of nature-related risks represents a failure to understand and manage risks to individual organisations as well as almost certainly magnifying the risks of ecosystem collapse and the consequent societal impacts."

— IFoA Planetary Solvency, April 2026

What we will not claim

ICRIP does not solve nature-systemic risk. No platform does. ICRIP addresses seven of the IFoA's ten recommendations in full and a further two in part on regulator-grade rails — and is honest about the rest. We will not call ourselves IFoA-endorsed or TNFD-endorsed. The paper is thought leadership; we are operational infrastructure. Different things.

Our patent applications PCT/EP2026/055546 and GB2604254.9 are filed, not granted. References to "patent application" or "patent pending" reflect this status correctly.

ICRIP today is built for the insurer balance sheet — SCR, MCR, IBNR, technical provisions, ORSA. The asset-owner / fiduciary surface for IIGCC- or TPT-style buyers comes in H2 2026. If you are running an investment portfolio rather than an underwriting book, talk to us about the roadmap, not the demo.

Where this leaves us

If you are a UK or European insurer reading the IFoA paper and asking where to start — we are the place to start. If you are a regulator or supervisor asking who is operationally ready — talk to us.

Request a demo Subscribe to the Regulatory Roadmap
Source paperJones, Bedenham, Goldman, Ranchin, Spencer, Trim — IFoA + Anglia Ruskin University, April 2026, 46pp
Endorsed in forewordEmily McKenzie, Technical Director, TNFD
Our methodologyIntegrated multi-agent platform on PRA SS5/25 §3 rails; cascading risk engine subject of patent applications PCT/EP2026/055546 + GB2604254.9 (filed; not yet granted)
Detailed mappingAvailable on request under NDA
Last verified2026-05-03 against the canonical April 2026 build
Abgalis Limited · London · [email protected]
Patents pending: PCT/EP2026/055546; GB2604254.9. Trade marks: Abgalis (UKIPO), ICRIP (UKIPO). Patent applications filed; not yet granted.
PRA SS5/25 supersedes SS5/25. References to SS5/25 in scraped public SFCRs reflect each insurer's own disclosure framing.